Rodney's last Hurrah?

Councillor Rodney Chambers had a double-spread in this week's Medway Messenger where he finally came out on the offensive on the Boris Island proposal.

It was a favourable piece which covered in detail his objections and the rational position of the Council.

It reminded this blogger that despite the interview, in less then three months we may very well have an entirely different leadership team in office.

This blog has consistently believed that over the next three months we will see the parting shot for Rodney Chambers and Alan Jarrett as the leadership team, in what has been a long period in office for both.

Should he go, and this blog thinks he will, it is ironic that the airport issue the parting shot, because it is the same issue which gave him the outright leadership of the Council in the first place. Go back to 2003 and the Cliffe Airport proposal was being spun by Medway Conservatives, helped of course by a wedge of Ashcroft's money. The highly visual campaign scored some direct hits and gave the Conservatives an outright majority which they have held ever since.

So assuming that this blog is correct.

What comes next?

This depends on the timetable for departure.

Assuming that he will believe he can not win the leadership, he will either resign over the next eight weeks and have a leadership ballot or indeed stay and stand-down after May, preferring to become a back-bencher or indeed, not a Councillor at all.

The potential question is now whether it happens before or after the election.

The honest thing to do would be to resign the leadership before the election, or over the next eight weeks, so that people can ascertain who the new leadership team are, and have this team to set a manifesto for office. This could be a tricky situation given the proximity to local election, but not impossible.

Alternatively, and the easier option, he could either resign and become a back-bencher, or not re-stand as a Councillor, so effectively declaring his leadership void after May 5th. This would mean a leadership ballot would be triggered on the election result. This position would be allowed despite the fact the public would not know the leadership outcome for the Conservative group until after the election. The question then arises over the democratic deficit over the potential programme and direction of the leader.

So who next?

Two favourites, individuals with leadership capabilities, stand out currently:

Mike O'Brien (Rainham Central, Gillingham & Rainham Constituency)

According to the Rainham Central Conservative website, Mike has lived in Rainham Central since 1971 and is a former Insurance Broker trading as Mike O'Brien Insurance Services in Station Road,Rainham for many years.

Mike has had over twenty years experience as both a Gillingham Borough Councillor and also as Kent County Councillor. Mike is The Portfolio Holder for Community Safety and Enforcement, a member of the Standards Committee the Corporate Parenting Board and the Member Development Advisory Group. Mike is a Justice of the Peace and serves in both the Youth and Adult Courts. Mike has also served as School Governor on many local schools and is currently a Governor of St Margaret's Infant School in Orchard Street Rainham.

Craig MacKinlay (River Ward, Rochester & Strood Constituency)

According to the Wikipedia entry. Craig Mackinlay is a British Eurosceptic politician

who grew up in Rainham, Kent, and studied at the University of Birmingham. A chartered accountant by trade, first became opposed to British membership of the European Union when Britain dropped out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

At the 1992 general election, he stood in Gillingham as an independent in support of Sked's Anti-Federalist League, taking 248 votes.

When the Anti-Federalist League became the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), Mackinlay became Treasurer and Vice-Chairman. He stood again in Gillingham at the 1997 general election, taking 590 votes.

In July 1997, Sked resigned the leadership of UKIP, and named Mackinlay as his successor. Mackinlay decided that the only way to keep the party going was to rework its constitution and hold a leadership election. Mackinlay stood in the election against Michael Holmes and Gerald Roberts. Holmes, with the backing of Nigel Farage, easily won, and appointed Mackinlay as deputy leader.

After the European Parliament election in 1999, Holmes dismissed Mackinlay and party secretary Tony Scholefield at an NEC meeting, which led to an immediate vote of no confidence in Holmes, who agreed to resign the following month. After extensive wrangling, Jeffrey Titford was elected as the new party leader, and Mackinlay stepped down as deputy, but remained on the NEC.

Mackinlay remained active in UKIP, standing in Totnes at the 2001 general election, at which he took 6.1% of the votes cast, then back in Gillingham in 2005, where he took 2.6%.[5] He also stood in the 1994, 1999 and 2004 European elections.

In July 2005, Mackinlay resigned from UKIP and joined the Conservative Party He was subsequently elected as a councillor on Medway Borough Council.

This blog will not comment on either potential candidate, but the public biographies can perhaps give you a flavour of the difference.

These are the two names residents should be watching very closely over the coming weeks irrelevant of what happens with the current leadership team.

The election result in May is therefore crucial to the end result, not only because River ward is highly marginal and could see a swing, but because the eventual result will dictate the eventual complexion of the group.