Poll Position

There is a new ComRes poll published in today's Independent which a small Labour over the Conservatives

Conservative 35% (down 1%)

Labour 39% (down 3%)

Lib Dem 12% (up 1%)

Looking at previous vote % Medway local elections vis-a-vis national polls the Tories are probably 2% higher with Labour 4-8% lower on average. This gives the Conservatives a lead of 4-6%.

For NOC or small Labour majority Labour need a 10-12% poll lead in the national polls.

The positives for Labour though are that they are ahead of the Tories among the bottom DE social group (by 45 to 30 per cent); among the C2 skilled manual workers (by 44 to 33 per cent) and the C1 lower middle class (by 38 to 33 per cent). It therefore bodes well for Labour in the seats they have concentrated resource including Rochester South & Horsted and Lordswood & Capstone which now become marginals. It points to Labour gains in Princes Park, Luton & Wayfield, Gillingham North, River, Strood South and Strood North.

However, the Tories enjoy a big lead (by 41 to 33 per cent) among the top AB group. This means the Tories will likely hold with healthy majorities the wealthier areas of Hempstead, Cuxton and the Peninsula with probably small swings.

Rainham will see an increase in Labour share of the vote from the Liberal Democrats, but that will benefit the incumbent Conservatives who are likely to retain the seats on these polls. Watling will be a Tory gain.

Although Labour is ahead in every other region, it trails the Tories by 46 to 29 per cent in the South East, which includes London. Regional polls like this are less useful than the socio-demographic breakdowns because Labour is simply not in contention in huge swathes of the region.

There is also a divide between the young and the old. Labour is ahead among voters between the ages of 18 and 54. It is neck and neck with the Tories among 55-64 year-olds but David Cameron’s party has a big lead (50 to 30 per cent) among those aged 65 and over. Given Medway has a younger demographic this also does bode well in the inner city wards for the Labour which have a younger demographic profile, but conversely does not because the older generation are more likely to vote.

Although last year’s slump in Liberal Democrat support appears to have bottomed out, only half (50 per cent) of those who voted for Nick Clegg’s party at last year’s election say they would do so now, while 29 per cent say they would back Labour. Gillingham North on this swing would go to Labour. The independent factor obviously does not calculate but would likely erode the Liberal vote further.

It seems like the return of two party politics is now all but a certainty in Medway.

A fair wind, but Labour are not complacent locally.