Tory sop on migration a mirage

Yes. I really do...

It is always interesting to read the work of the current coalition government around immigration.

The Tories made a pledge during the General Election to cut migration to the tens of thousands. A pledge re-affirmed in the Queens Speech.

This despite the fact that if we were to hold David Cameron’s immigration cap to its full impact it would stunt economic growth and cost the exchequer around £9bn a year, at least according to the Office of Budget Responsibility economic model.

The OBR has now officially taken account of the coalition’s immigration policies. Their verdict makes surprising reading.

Their considered view is that Cameron will have no impact on net immigration. All the announcements since June have not made a jot of difference. All the bravado and all the Tory spin is nothing more then a fig-leaf to its base who are once again being duped by a pro-Federalist government who are powerless to do anything about migration.

The issue of placing caps on migration was never a solution, which is why the Tories were stupid to lead on that pledge during the General Election.

This is the key passage explaining the old assumption and the new policies:

The interim OBR’s June Budget estimates of trend growth estimates were based on an average net inward migration assumption of 140,000 per annum….

Since June, the Government has announced a limit of 21,700 for non-EU migrantscoming into the UK under the skilled and highly skilled routes from April 2011, areduction of 6,300 on 2009.

And here is their view of the impact the new policies will have:

At this stage, we judge that there is insufficient reason to change our average net migration assumption of 140,000 per year from 2010, which remains well below the net inflows of 198,000 seen in 2009.

Our assumption that average levels of net migration will be weaker in forthcoming years reflects our judgement that the removal of restrictions on inward migration by other EU countries and relatively weaker economic activityare likely to reduce the average level of net inflows relative to the recent past.

In summary, the new policies provide “insufficient reason” to adjust their migration forecasts. The OBR are predicting that Cameron will fail to reduce net migration into the tens of thousands — a pledge made in the Queen’s speech.

And to rub salt into the wound, they say that any success in bringing down migration will be down to factors (such as German immigration policy) that are completely outside Cameron’s control.

Oh dear. Our Eurosceptic rabble in Medway wont be pleased... reliant on Europe. Pah...