Jumat, 10 Desember 2010

Just holding the line



Liberal Democrat suppport has plummeted since the general election in the North East and South West of England, new analysis of Ipsos MORI polls shows.


As controversy over Liberal Democrat support for the government’s policy on university tuition fees reaches a peak, Ipsos MORI’s aggregate analysis of their monthly polls since the general election shows that support has swung from the Liberal Democrats to Labour across the country, but much more sharply in some regions than in others.

Across Great Britain as a whole, Liberal Democrat support has averaged 15% between June and November, less than two-thirds of the 24% of the vote that the party secured at the general election; the swing has been almost entirely to Labour, with the Conservatives holding the 37% they won in May.


But there have been big differences in the changes in support in different regions. In the North East, Liberal Democrat support has almost disappeared, falling to just 4% of those certain to vote, an overall swing to Labour of 19%. In the South West, the Lib Dems’ strongest region at the election, the swing has been almost as high, 16%, and they have lost half their support in London, with an 11% swing to Labour.


Most recent polls have shown the Lib Dems well below that post-election average of 15% nationally, which suggests that they may well be even worse off now in many regions than these figures show.


However, the party has held on to most of its support in the Midlands and South East, as well in Scotland and Wales where devolved elections are due next May.



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