Is that a Boeing?

The Estuary Airport was once again being touted today in The Times as the lead editorial makes clear that David Cameron should now actively consider the placing of a major international hub airport on the Thames Estuary.

It now can not be ignored as a fringe issue, and if it is not on the government agenda it is now very likely it will be very shortly. I suspect Cameron is about to undertake a u-turn on the airport proposal - not as if he or the Tories, do not have form on u-turns - and is now under pressure from some very powerful lobbies.

The Medway Tories have had arguably, and as an electoral strategy, been happy to have their head-in-the-sand for three or more years despite constant pressure from the opposition for them to raise their game. As this blog has stated for years, and been attacked for it, simply refusing to run a proper and funded campaign could lead to a worse outcome. Nipping this issue in the bud with a firm and robust response in 2008, could have killed the issue.

I am not suggesting, and have never suggested, that Medway Conservatives support the proposal. I am suggesting that running a low profile campaign of attrition has allowed Boris Johnson to pursue his agenda more vigorously.

Cllr Teresa Murray and the Medway Labour group, led by Cllr Paul Godwin, saw this issue for the threat it was and called for an immediate, vocal, active and sizeable cross-party campaign to oppose the Mayoral proposals early, before they had a chance to take-off.

The Labour Group were derided for scare-mongering, posturing and trying to highlight a non-issue; sadly and expectedly, it is the Tories who have been proved wrong.

Time and time again the Tories locally have treated this issue as nothing more than a ridiculous idea from a Mayor with a history of putting his foot in his elitist mouth.

Perhaps openly ridiculing the idea early on was a sensible strategy, but it simply is not enough today to have a website and to suggest the idea of an airport is at best lunacy and at worse an issue with little support and dubious funding; It is demonstrably neither.

The threat is now very real.

To remind readers that whilst Medway Conservatives have managed a low-profile campaign the following has happened

• Mayor has secured the backing of top 100 business CEOs and Chief Executives from top British Business
• BA has ruled out Heathrow expansion and has threatened a move to Europe unless more capacity is found
• Allowed the re-formation of the Parliamentary TEA (Thames Estuary Airport) Group comprised of former Ministers to lobby for airport provision
• Allowed the Conservative Party Mayor to undertake expensive, extensive and expansive studies on airport suitability in the Thames Estuary
• Department for Transport has begun initial consultations on Aviation Capacity in the South East and has received active lobbying from Conservatives in London City Hall
• Medway MPs have only secured a partial and time-limited commitment from Cameron and DfT Minister on rejecting the idea of an Estuary airport.

The one positive from the recent discourse in the press is that there is active support in Essex for the expansion of Southend Airport, which has since seen a well publicized endorsement from easyJet. However, make no mistake, easyJet still perceives Southend as an attractive 'spoke' airport and not a 'hub,' though any such move by easyJet could be shrewdly timed. The argument therefore for expansion at Southend is worthy but at this stage no more developed than Cliffe or the Island proposal. In addition, the air-routes for any International hub at Southend will no doubt impact Medway.

Would anyone in Hoo, Cliffe or Grain want to live under a major air corridor?

I am regularly reminded by readers that the Cliffe scheme was pulled in 2002/03 because of the risk of bird strike. I might point out that similar issues have been raised at other airports around the globe at development stage, and in most cases movement of birds is a relatively ‘low-cost’ option compared with the wider economic judgment on cost-benefit of an International airport. If Boris can propose a multi-billion pound island, than moving a number of nested birds is sadly not beyond the realms of fiscal possibility, whether environmentalists (like myself) agree or not. This is not to remove the issue, but to suggest that policy-makers will make or reject purely on the issue of 'bird-strike' is not, unfortunately, insurmountable.

What is abundantly clear is that the Medway Tory inaction has allowed this issue to grow, develop and mature.

If they do not get a grip we could be into government consultation territory and believe me, the finger will be pointed at them and their MPs, for naively allowing us to reach that stage after years of obvious warning signs.